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Interest Rate Overview
 
  Source: Bankrate.com
 
 
  Source: Bankrate.com
 
Weekly Nat'l Mortgage Survey - May 16, 2007                    Source: Bankrate.com
 

30-year fixed

15-year fixed

5-year ARM

This week's rate:

6.32%

6.05%

6.24%

Change from last week:

+0.03

+0.05

+0.08

Monthly payment:

$2,481.11

$3,386.24

$2,460.27

 

 

 

 
The benchmark 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose 3 basis points, to 6.32 percent, the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders found. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.26 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 6.73 percent; four weeks ago, it was 6.29 percent.

The 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose 5 basis points, to 6.05 percent. The 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage rose 8 basis points, to 6.24 percent.

Weekly Nat'l Mortgage Survey - May 2, 2007                    Source: Bankrate.com
 

30-year fixed

15-year fixed

5-year ARM

This week's rate:

6.28%

6.00%

6.13%

Change from last week:

+0.01

+0.01

+0.01

Monthly payment:

$2,470.68

$3,375.43

$2,431.74

 
The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 1 basis point, to 6.28 percent, the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders shows. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.26 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 6.67 percent; four weeks ago, it was 6.25 percent.

The benchmark 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose 1 basis point, to 6 percent. The benchmark 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage rose 1 basis point, to 6.13 percent.

Weekly Nat'l Mortgage Survey - April 18, 2007                    Source: Bankrate.com
 

30-year fixed

15-year fixed

5-year ARM

This week's rate:

6.29%

6.02%

6.11%

Change from last week:

-0.02

-0.02

-0.06

Monthly payment:

$2,473.28

$3,379.75

$2,426.56

 
The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 2 basis points, to 6.29 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.27 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 6.57 percent; four weeks ago, it was 6.19 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 2 basis points, to 6.02 percent. The 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage fell 6 basis points, to 6.11 percent.

Weekly Nat'l Mortgage Survey - April 4, 2007                    Source: Bankrate.com
 

30-year fixed

15-year fixed

5-year ARM

This week's rate:

6.25%

5.97%

6.12%

Change from last week:

+0.03

+0.05

+0.07

Monthly payment:

$2,462.87

$3,368.95

$2,429.15

Change from last week:

+$7.80

+$10.79

+$18.07

 
The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 3 basis points to 6.25 percent this week, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.27 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 6.51 percent; four weeks ago, it was 6.19 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage crept up 5 basis points, to 5.97 percent. The 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage saw the biggest gain with a jump of 7 basis points to 6.12 percent.

Weekly Nat'l Mortgage Survey - March 21, 2007                    Source: Bankrate.com
 

30-year fixed

15-year fixed

5-year ARM

This week's rate:

6.19%

5.93%

6.08%

Change from last week:

+0.03

N/C

+0.04

Monthly payment:

$2,447.28

$3,360.32

$2,418.81

Change from last week:

+$7.78

N/C

+$10.31

 
The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 3 basis points to 6.19 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.10 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 6.39 percent; four weeks ago, it was 6.29 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage remained unchanged at 5.93 percent. The 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage rose 4 basis points to 6.08 percent.

Weekly Nat'l Mortgage Survey - Mar 7, 2007                       Source: Bankrate.com
 

30-year fixed

15-year fixed

5-year ARM

This week's rate:

6.19%

5.95%

6.04%

Change from last week:

-0.01

N/C

+0.01

Monthly payment:

$2,447.28

$3,364.63

$2,408.50

Change from last week:

-$2.60

N/C

+$2.58

 
The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is at its lowest rate since a brief thaw in the three weeks after Thanksgiving, when everyone was too busy to apply for a home loan. If you ignore that holiday-season respite, rates haven't been this low since January of 2006.

The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 1 basis point, to 6.19 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.3 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 6.45 percent; four weeks ago, it was 6.31 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage remained 5.95 percent. The 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage rose 1 basis point, to 6.04 percent.

The average 30-year rate has declined three weeks in a row and four of the last five weeks. It was 6.42 percent at the end of January and has dropped almost a quarter of a percentage point since then.

Weekly Nat'l Mortgage Survey - Feb 28, 2007                      Source: Bankrate.com
 

30-year fixed

15-year fixed

5-year ARM

This week's rate:

6.20%

5.95%

6.03%

Change from last week:

-0.09

-0.09

-0.12

Monthly payment:

$2,449.88

$3,364.63

$2,405.92

Change from last week:

-$23.40

-$19.45

-$30.99

 
The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 9 basis points, to 6.2 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.32 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 6.27 percent; four weeks ago, it was 6.42 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 9 basis points, to 5.95 percent. The 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage fell 12 basis points, to 6.03 percent. 

Weekly Nat'l Mortgage Survey - Feb 7, 2007                       Source: Bankrate.com
 

30-year fixed

15-year fixed

5-year ARM

This week's rate:

6.31%

6.08%

6.17%

Change from last week:

-0.11

-0.11

-0.13

Monthly payment:

$2,478.50

$3,392.74

$2,442.09

Change from last week:

-$28.76

-$23.08

-$33.80

 
The benchmark 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell 11 basis points to 6.31 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.31 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 6.32 percent; four weeks ago, it was 6.24 percent.

The benchmark 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell 11 basis points to 6.08 percent. The benchmark 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage fell 13 basis points to 6.17 percent.

Weekly Nat'l Mortgage Survey - Jan 17, 2007                      Source: Bankrate.com
  30-year fixed

15-year fixed

5-year ARM

This week's rate:

6.26%

6.03%

6.20%

Change from last week:

+0.02

+0.05

+0.03

Monthly payment:

$2,465.27

$3,381.91

$2,449.88

Change from last week:

+$5.00

+$10.80

+$7.79

 
The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 2 basis points to 6.26 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.32 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 6.12 percent; four weeks ago, it was 6.2 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage hurdled the 6 percent mark for the first time since November, rising 5 basis points to 6.03 percent. The 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage rose 3 basis points to 6.2 percent.

Weekly Nat'l Mortgage Survey - Jan 3, 2007                      Source: Bankrate.com
 

30-year fixed

15-year fixed

5-year ARM

This week's rate:

6.24%

5.99%

6.15%

Change from last week:

+0.01

+0.03

+0.04

Monthly payment:

$2,460.27

$3,373.27

$2,436.91

Change from last week:

+$5.00

+$8.64

+$4.27

 
The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 1 basis point, to 6.24 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.27 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 6.27 percent; four weeks ago, it was 6.08 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 3 basis points to 5.99 percent. The 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage rose 4 basis points to 6.15 percent.

Weekly Nat'l Mortgage Survey - Dec 20, 2006                      Source: Bankrate.com
 

30-year fixed

15-year fixed

5-year ARM

This week's rate:

6.20%

5.95%

6.09%

Change from last week:

+0.07

+0.09

+0.07

Monthly payment:

$2,449.88

$3,364.63

$2,421.40

Change from last week:

+$18.14

+$19.38

+$15.51

 
The benchmark 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose 7 basis points, to 6.2 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.27 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 6.33 percent; four weeks ago, it was 6.22 percent.

The benchmark 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose 9 basis points, to 5.95 percent. The benchmark 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage rose 7 basis points, to 6.09 percent.

Weekly Nat'l Mortgage Survey - Dec 13, 2006                      Source: Bankrate.com
 

30-year fixed

15-year fixed

5-year ARM

This week's rate:

6.13%

5.86%

6.02%

Change from last week:

+0.05

+0.03

+0.07

Monthly payment:

$2,431.74

$3,345.25

$2,403.35

Change from last week:

+$12.93

+$6.45

+$17.99

 
The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 5 basis points to 6.13 percent this week, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.24 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 6.34 percent; four weeks ago, it was 6.24 percent.

It was the first increase since Bankrate's Oct. 25 survey. In the meantime, rates fell six weeks in a row, from 6.46 percent in the Oct. 25 survey to 6.08 percent in Bankrate's Dec. 6 survey.

The benchmark 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 3 basis points to 5.86 percent. The benchmark 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage rose 7 basis points to 6.02 percent.

Weekly Nat'l Mortgage Survey - Nov 29, 2006                      Source: Bankrate.com
 

30-year fixed

15-year fixed

5-year ARM

This week's rate: 6.17%

5.91%

6.01%

Change from last week: -0.05

-0.05

-0.10

Monthly payment: $2,442.09

$3,356.01

$2,400.77

Change from last week: -$12.98

-$10.78

-$25.79

 
The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell for the fifth week in a row, this time by 5 basis points, to 6.17 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.3 discount and origination points.

The 30-year rate dropped to its lowest level since Jan. 25, when it was also 6.17 percent. One year ago, the mortgage index was 6.36 percent; four weeks ago, it was 6.31 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 5 basis points to 5.91 percent. The 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage plummeted 10 basis points to 6.01 percent.

Weekly Nat'l Mortgage Survey - Nov 15, 2006                      Source: Bankrate.com
 

30-year fixed

15-year fixed

5-year ARM

This week's rate:

6.24%

5.98%

6.13%

Change from last week:

-0.08

-0.04

-0.03

Monthly payment:

$1,845.20

$2,528.33

$1,823.80

Change from last week:

-$15.63

-$6.48

-$5.83

 
The benchmark 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell 8 basis points to 6.24 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.32 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 6.42 percent; four weeks ago, it was also 6.42 percent.
 
The 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell 4 basis points to 5.98 percent. The 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage fell 3 basis points to 6.13 percent.
 
11-month low
Rates on 30-year mortgages haven't been lower since the last week of January, when the average was 6.17 percent. Homeowners noticed last week, as they refinanced in throngs unseen since October 2005, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Just a shade under half of mortgage applications were from homeowners who wanted to refinance.
 
Weekly Nat'l Mortgage Survey - Nov 8, 2006                      Source: Bankrate.com
 

30-year fixed

15-year fixed

5-year ARM

This week's rate:

6.32%

6.02%

6.16%

Change from last week:

+0.01

N/C

+0.03

Monthly payment:

$1,860.83

$2,534.81

$1,829.63

Change from last week:

N/A

N/A

N/A

 
The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 1 basis point to 6.32 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.26 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 6.42 percent; four weeks ago, it was also 6.42 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage was unchanged at 6.02 percent. The 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage rose 3 basis points to 6.16 percent. The 1-year ARM fell a basis point, to 5.91 percent.

Mortgage rates were about the only thing that didn't change much from week to week. There was a hefty surge in mortgage applications, plus that teeter-totter with the October jobs report sitting on one end and the equally weighty election results sitting on the other.

Weekly Nat'l Mortgage Survey - Nov 1, 2006                      Source: Bankrate.com
 

30-year fixed

15-year fixed

5-year ARM

This week's rate:

6.31%

6.02%

6.13%

Change from last week:

-0.15

-0.14

-0.15

Monthly payment:

$1,022.38

$1,394.15

$1,003.09

Change from last week:

-$16.20

-$12.52

-$16.06

The benchmark 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell 15 basis points to 6.31 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.25 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 6.37 percent; four weeks ago, it was 6.31 percent.

The 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell 14 basis points to 6.02 percent. The 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage fell 15 basis points to 6.13 percent.

Rates fell at the same time that economic reports seemed to be signaling that the economy was going through an icy patch. Factory orders fell, construction spending was down and an index of future home sales showed that sellers will continue to have reasons to weep. When it looks like the economy is about to slow down, long-term interest rates tend to fall.
 
Weekly Nat'l Mortgage Survey - Oct 25, 2006                      Source: Bankrate.com
 

30-year fixed

15-year fixed

5-year ARM

This week's rate:

6.46%

6.16%

6.28%

Change from last week:

+0.04

+0.06

+0.04

Monthly payment:

$1,038.58

$1,406.67

$1,019.15

Change from last week:

+$4.33

+$5.38

+$4.29

The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose for the third time in four weeks, rising 4 basis points to 6.46 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.35 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 6.24 percent; four weeks ago, it was 6.29 percent. It has gone up 17 basis points in a month.

The 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose 6 basis points to 6.16 percent. The 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage went up 4 basis points to 6.28 percent.

Putting smiles on home shoppers' faces was the Federal Reserve's decision to keep short-term rates steady. While mortgage rates are set by the market and, thus, don't respond directly to the Fed's rate moves, the central bank's decision should add a calming influence.

"The Fed's decision to pause and then to take no action over the last three meetings has brought a collective sigh of relief for homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages and home equity lines of credit," says Bob Walters, chief economist for Quicken Loans. "They know that, at least in the interim, their payment will not change."

 
Weekly Nat'l Mortgage Survey - Oct 18, 2006                      Source: Bankrate.com
 

30-year fixed

15-year fixed

5-year ARM

This week's rate:

6.42%

6.10%

6.24%

Change from last week:

N/C

-0.01

+0.01

Monthly payment:

$1,034.25

$1,401.29

$1,014.86

Change from last week:

N/C

-$0.90

+$1.07

The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was unchanged at 6.42 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.32 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 6.17 percent; four weeks ago, it was 6.44 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 1 basis point to 6.1 percent. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage rose 1 basis point to 6.24 percent.

Forces push and pull
Various forces vied to push rates upward and pull them downward. Leading the way were two important measures of inflation that came out this week: the Producer Price Index, which measures inflation at the wholesale level, and the Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation at the retail level. Both of them showed that overall prices fell in September, but core prices went up.

Overall prices include food and fuel. Core prices exclude food and fuel because those two commodities can jump up and down rapidly from month to month in response to bad weather, war and the vagaries of the markets. And that's what fuel prices did. Retail energy prices fell 7.2 percent in September, and wholesale energy prices fell 8.4 percent.

But when you strip out food and energy, prices were up. Core wholesale prices rose 0.6 percent in September after falling 0.4 percent in August. As for core retail prices, they went up 0.2 percent for the third month in a row. Core retail prices have risen 2.9 percent in the past year, which is considerably above the Fed's comfort zone of an inflation rate between 1 percent and 2 percent.


Weekly Nat'l Mortgage Survey - Oct 11, 2006                      Source: Bankrate.com
 

30-year fixed

15-year fixed

5-year ARM

This week's rate:

6.42%

6.11%

6.23%

Change from last week:

+0.11

+0.11

+0.17

Monthly payment:

$1,034.25

$1,402.19

$1013.79

Change from last week:

+$11.87

+$9.83

+$18.16

Mortgage rates rose abruptly this week as officials from the Federal Reserve hinted en masse that they probably won't cut short-term rates anytime soon.

The benchmark 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose 11 basis points to 6.42 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.32 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 6.1 percent; four weeks ago, it was 6.44 percent.

The benchmark 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose 11 basis points to 6.11 percent. The benchmark 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage rose 17 basis points to 6.23 percent.

Until recently, there had been a lot of speculation on Wall Street that the Federal Open Market Committee would reduce the federal funds rate sometime in 2007 -- maybe in the first half of the year. Investors and economists figured that a rate cut in 2007 was possible because the economy is slowing, led by falling house sales and a dwindling pace of residential construction.

Don't count on a rate cut, Fed officials have said in the past week and a half. In fact, they implied, another rate increase is more likely than a decrease.

Investors took notice of the Fed bankers' warnings. Their caution about inflation -- and implicit warnings that a Fed rate cut is unlikely to happen soon -- caused bond yields to rise, and mortgage rates followed.

Fed chorus on same line
William Poole, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, served this message first, in a speech Sept. 29. Donald Kohn, the Fed's vice chairman, followed on Oct. 4. Then came a speech Oct. 5 by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, and then another speech Oct. 9 by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
 
The Fed officials brought up the following points:
Poole, of the St. Louis Fed, boiled it down by saying that "the Federal Reserve has a deep commitment to achieving a long-run outcome for inflation that is in accord with its price stability objective. Put another way, short-run policy is strongly motivated by long-run considerations."
 
Weekly Nat'l Mortgage Survey - Oct 4, 2006                      Source: Bankrate.com
  30-year fixed

15-year fixed

5-year ARM

This week's rate: 6.31%

6.00%

6.06%

Change from last week: +0.02

+0.04

-0.01

Monthly payment: $1,022.38

$1,392.36

$995.63

Change from last week: +$2.15

+$3.56

-$1.07

The bond market awaited Friday's release of the employment report for September. According to Briefing.com's survey of economists, the consensus on Wall Street is that the September unemployment rate will stay unchanged at 4.7 percent, and that the report will say nonfarm payrolls grew by 120,000 jobs. That wouldn't be an impressive pace of job growth, but it wouldn't be terrible, either. If the report says the economy grew by 150,000 or more jobs, mortgage rates would be likely to rise late this week and early next week.

The 30-year fixed peaked at 6.93 percent in Bankrate's June 28 survey, and it has run mostly downhill since. In the last 14 weeks, rates fell 10 times, remained the same once and rose three times. When you add those three upward blips together, they total 5 basis points. Rates have followed a long, steady downward slope, with three speed bumps.

It took a long time for homeowners to recognize what was happening to rates. Or rather, it took a long time for non-Bankrate-reading homeowners to get a clue. As rates fell week after week, lenders hoped for a small refinancing boom. Instead of a boom like a firecracker, they got a pop like you get when you snap a forefinger out of your mouth.

Until last week. That's when refinance volume jumped 17.5 percent, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Some 46.7 percent of mortgage applicants were homeowners who wished to refinance their home loans. The refinance share hadn't been that high in 19 months.

An MBA economist attributed the miniboom to the drop in interest rates. But there's a bit more to it than that. This is a good opportunity for homeowners to switch out of adjustable-rate mortgages and into fixed-rate loans.

"With long-term interest rates having fallen far and fast in recent weeks, a new refinance boom is well underway," says Bob Walters, chief economist for Quicken Loans. "We've seen an increase in homeowners refinancing out of adjustable-rate mortgages on the verge of them resetting and out of fixed-rate mortgages that are in the mid- to high-6 percent range."

Weekly Nat'l Mortgage Survey - Sept 20, 2006                  Source: Bankrate.com
 

30-year fixed

15-year fixed

5-year ARM

This week's rate:

6.44%

6.12%

6.19%

Change from last week:

N/C

N/C

N/C

Monthly payment:

$1,036.41

$1,403.08

$1,009.50

Change from last week:

N/C

N/C

N/C

The central bank said that inflation is running higher than desired but that prices are likely to stabilize as the full effects of 17 straight rate increases take hold. But the Fed speculated that there is a greater risk of inflation rising than of the economy growing cold. The committee said it might have to raise rates again at some point, depending on the economic data that come in.

Following the Fed's announcement, yields on U.S. Treasuries moved in different directions. Rates on 30-year-fixed mortgages tend to move in the same direction as the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which closed down a couple of basis points Wednesday. A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point. Yields on two-year Treasuries moved up 2 basis points, while the five-year Treasury was unchanged.

The movement of Treasuries on Wednesday hints that the rate difference between the 30-year fixed and ARMs might continue to narrow. Six months ago, the rate on a 30-year fixed was 35 basis points higher than that of a 5/1 ARM (6.39 percent vs. 6.04 percent). This week, the difference is 25 basis points -- a spread that has been narrowing gradually all year.

The 30-year fixed has fallen nine of the last 12 weeks. Two weeks had minimal rises: 2 basis points the week of July 19 and 1 basis point the week of Aug. 29. Other than those two minor blips and this week's unchanged rate, the 30-year fixed has fallen for three months straight, ever since it reached this year's high of 6.93 percent.

Weekly Nat'l Mortgage Survey - Sept 13, 2006                  Source: Bankrate.com
  30-year fixed

15-year fixed

5-year ARM

This week's rate:

6.44%

6.12%

6.19%

Change from last week:

-0.01%

-0.02%

-0.05%

Monthly payment:

$1,036.41

$1,403.08

$1,009.50

Change from last week:

-$1.08

-$1.79

-$5.36

Half-point drop
The benchmark 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell 1 basis point to 6.44 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.3 discount and origination points.

One year ago, the mortgage index was 5.76 percent, and four weeks ago, it was 6.51 percent. The 30-year benchmark has fallen in nine of the past 11 weeks. It was 6.93 percent June 28 -- almost half a percentage point higher.

The 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell 2 basis points to 6.12 percent. The 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage fell 5 basis points to 6.19 percent.

Yellen said a lot of things are supporting economic growth, and three things are exerting drag on the economy: rising energy prices, higher interest rates brought on by the Fed and what she called "the piggy-bank phenomenon."

In this case, the piggy bank is home equity. As house values zoomed over the past four years, homeowners felt rich, even if they didn't tap that equity, and that feeling encouraged them to spend. And many homeowners did tap that equity, using home equity loans or credit lines.

Tuesday, June 20, 2006

Housing-related recession called unlikely

UCLA forecasts job cuts in real estate industry but not enough for economic slump.

By ANDREW GALVIN
The Orange County Register

California could lose jobs in real estate-related industries as housing prices flatten over the next few years, but the layoffs probably won't be enough to push the state's economy into recession, according to forecasters at UCLA.

The latest study from the UCLA Anderson Forecast portrays California's economy as "poised at a tipping point." The real estate industry, a major contributor to economic growth last year, is slowing down as housing markets cool across the state, the report says.

Ryan Ratcliff, author of UCLA's California forecast, considered – and found unlikely – the possibility of a recurrence of the state's 1990s recession, when the economy stagnated and housing prices fell consistently.

"Historically, sustained declines in the average price of a home are extremely rare – occurring only during recessions and only in the hardest-hit regions (like California in the '90s)," Ratcliff wrote.

Construction and mortgage-lending industries are likely to lose jobs as real estate activity slows. However, those losses won't add up to a recession in California unless manufacturing companies also shed a significant number of workers, according to Ratcliff.

"If we do see another round of job losses in manufacturing, all bets are off," he wrote.

Manufacturing employment in California has barely budged in the 12 months through May, falling 0.1 percent to 1.508 million workers, according to the state's Employment Development Department.

In Orange County, the picture is similar: Manufacturing employment is down 0.5 percent to 182,900 in the 12 months through May.

Other local economists have said manufacturing could add jobs if the U.S. dollar weakens, making exports more attractive to foreign buyers. Orange County manufacturers added 900 jobs in April and May, according to the EDD.

Some real estate-related job losses are already occurring. Mortgage companies reported 1,140 layoffs in Orange County since April, according to notices filed by employers with the EDD.

However, construction has continued to add jobs, with employment up 2.9 percent statewide and 2.6 percent in Orange County in the 12 months through May, according to EDD.

According to a study for the California Building Industry Association, new construction constituted about 3 percent of the state's economy last year.

Friday, June 16, 2006